ANNEX II
The Urban Marathon
Introductory notes
In order to get better understanding where the genuine hinterland of the world’s largest cities ends and some kind of conurbation begins, it seems useful to have an overview of the actual size of extra large cities at various area thresholds. Stages for this urban marathon were gradually increased (first 100km˛, then 200 km˛, 250km˛, 500km˛, 1,000km˛ and finally 2,500km˛) in order to detect the tipping points where, in most cases, ceases any considerable increase in population figures. This picture is complemented with the one in ANNEX IV where the absolute, and particularly with ANNEX V, where the marginal densities are shown for each of the stages of this Urban marathon.
Sources
Data sources are practically the same as with the ANNEX I, that is the local, the national, and the supranational statistical offices (like Eurostat), as well as the Wikipedia, and the city population website (city.population.de). Wikipedia and the city population website are providing the breakdown of administrative units not only for the city itself, but also for larger than city units. The city population website is particularly helpful since it provides also a map of the wider territorial units, so you can see all potential members of a conurbation around the largest cities, which was of considerable help for the later stages of “the Urban Marathon”.
Though complete data for each metro area and for each stage of the Urban Marathon were not available. Therefore occasionally, a sign + is added to indicate that at this stage the population number must be bigger than at the stage before that, but that the exact data were lacking even for a qualified guess.
Comments
Looking at the “split-times” in this “Urban Marathon” it is obvious that Tokyo, widely regarded as the largest city in the world, takes the lead only at the 3,000 km˛ threshold. More surprisingly New York, which is often regarded as the second largest city in the world (after Tokyo), was never really in contention for the lead. Actually, at no stage it makes to the top 10! Of course, the picture changes dramatically when we look at the city GDP at 300 km˛ (in the ANNEX III)
If we look at this competition for the largest city as a kind of sport event, then a report from this event might look something like this:
Early lead is taken by Karachi (with the population of 5,5 million at first 100 km˛; 11,2 million at 300 km˛, and 13,3 million at 500 km˛). The leading position is then overtaken by Mumbai (14,0 million at 750 km˛, and 16,2 million at 1,000 km˛). Mumbai’s lead was then challenged by Metro Manila (18,6 million at 1,500 km˛). At 2,000 km˛ check point, Seoul becomes the new leader with a population of 20,6 million (after Incheon is included in its wider urban area), and holds the pole position at 2,500 km˛ as well (with the population of 21,9 million). Finally when Tokyo overtakes the lead at 3,000 km˛ (with the population of 22,7 million), it holds it till the end, except maybe at 7,500 km˛, where the lead is possibly overtaken by Greater Jakarta with the population of 28 million)
Out of some 70 competitors at the start, with population of more than a million, within their first 100 km˛, only 26 reached the population of 10 million by the 3,000 km˛ threshold, and only four more have reached that level at the 10,000 km˛ mark.